What is Polymarket and how do prediction markets work?

Polymarket is a prediction-market platform where traders buy and sell outcome shares tied to real events. A binary market normally has Yes and No shares. A winning share pays $1 after resolution; a losing share pays $0.

The market price is often read as an implied probability. A Yes share trading at 70¢ suggests the market currently assigns roughly a 70% chance to Yes. That is a price produced by traders, not an objective forecast or guarantee.

1. Choose the outcome and review the available order-book price.
2. Read the full resolution rules, source, deadline and edge cases.
3. Buy shares or place a limit order at a price you accept.
4. Sell before resolution or wait for the market to settle.
5. Winning shares redeem for $1; losing shares settle at $0.

A near-$1 price means traders view an outcome as very likely. It does not remove event risk, ambiguous wording, thin liquidity, disputes or settlement delay. One losing 98¢ share can erase the gross profit from roughly 49 winning shares bought at the same price.

Start with the risk disclosure and learn how resolution rules determine the payout.

99market narrows the public Polymarket feed to active outcomes priced from 98¢ to 99.5¢ with at least $1,000 in reported volume. It compares time, annualized return and rule-quality signals; it does not predict winners or replace the original market rules.