Manifold prediction market review

Status hint

Live

Venue type

social prediction market using limit orders and an AMM

Outcome types

binary, categorical, scalar

Chains

Off-chain

Mechanisms

amm

Last reviewed

2026-08-10

Core Mana play is available through the public site. Cash-prize and sweepstakes products require age 18+, an eligible location, and product-specific restrictions.

Core Mana play is available through the public site. Cash-prize and sweepstakes products require age 18+, an eligible location, and product-specific restrictions.

Manifold's available fact pattern points to a social prediction market using limit orders and an AMM: outcome coverage is listed as binary, categorical, and scalar, and the associated network context is Off-chain. This profile avoids extending those facts into unsupported claims. The venue entered this dataset with a live status hint rather than a continuously monitored uptime claim. The retained research status reads "live": The official site, current terms, FAQ, API, and prize documentation describe active markets and account workflows.

Confirmation belongs at https://manifold.markets/, including whether Manifold still offers the described product. A valid HTTPS response is not equivalent to verified trading availability. The claims below remain limited to what the cited material supports.

For Manifold, this record preserves only the classifications binary, categorical, and scalar, amm, and Off-chain. It does not convert taxonomy into claims about launch maturity, regulatory treatment, liquidity, or product quality. This boundary keeps unknown attributes visible instead of smoothing them into confident prose.

Manifold has researched access information rather than a presumption of global availability, and the official wording remains controlling. Research summary: Core Mana play is available through the public site. Cash-prize and sweepstakes products require age 18+, an eligible location, and product-specific restrictions.

For Manifold, status and eligibility are distinct questions. The live hint says nothing definitive about a specific reader's legal or operational access. KYC summary: Conditional. Manifold may require KYC/AML for prizes, promotions, high-value transactions, or compliance; new signups may be prompted for mobile, ID, and selfie verification.

The mechanics snapshot for Manifold lists amm, serving markets described as binary, categorical, and scalar. A label such as AMM, CLOB, or sportsbook is too broad to determine actual fills or payouts.

Before using Manifold, compare the displayed quote with available size and the complete resolution specification. Neither a probability-like number nor a category label guarantees executable value. Settlement and resolution summary: Market creators generally resolve their markets, but Manifold retains ultimate discretion to resolve, re-resolve, cancel, or void any market. Sweepstakes markets are managed and resolved solely by Manifold.

Fee evidence is available for Manifold, but users should calculate total execution, funding, conversion, gas, and withdrawal cost for their exact workflow. Retained fee evidence: Mana is free to earn or optional to purchase. Official API docs list market-creation costs by format. Sweepstakes cash redemption is documented with a 5% withdrawal fee; other purchase/payment costs may apply.

The retained material gives a custody outline for Manifold, which should be reconciled with current contracts, wallet permissions, and withdrawal documentation. Retained custody evidence: Mana is a non-redeemable virtual currency owned by Manifold and licensed to users. Eligible prize payouts may go to a bank account or external USDC wallet, depending on product.

Risk review for Manifold should include market loss, thin depth, disputed resolution, account interruption, smart-contract or counterparty failure, and changing legal treatment. The live label is not a safety rating. Documented limitations include: Manifold retains broad final discretion over every market resolution., Cash-related products add location, verification, and withdrawal constraints., and Mana has no cash value and remains Manifold's property..

At https://manifold.markets/, confirm Manifold's domain ownership signals, terms, market rules, fees, custody, and support route. Stop if signatures, deposits, or identity requests do not match documented workflows. Priority evaluation checks include: Distinguish Mana, sweepcash, and prize-drawing rules before participating., Check current location and age eligibility for any cash product., Review the creator's resolution criteria and Manifold override power., and Confirm KYC and payout method before pursuing a prize..

• Distinguish Mana, sweepcash, and prize-drawing rules before participating.
• Check current location and age eligibility for any cash product.
• Review the creator's resolution criteria and Manifold override power.
• Confirm KYC and payout method before pursuing a prize.
• Verify creation, purchase, redemption, and payment-provider fees.
• Confirm that https://manifold.markets/ is the current official domain for Manifold.
• Compare the "live" hint with a dated official availability notice.
• Read restricted-jurisdiction, age, sanctions, and account-eligibility terms.
• Locate the complete fee schedule, including spreads, gas, deposits, and withdrawals.
• Identify custody, collateral, wallet permissions, and the withdrawal process.
• Verify how binary, categorical, and scalar markets define evidence, cancellation, disputes, and settlement.

Check current product, legal and technical documentation before relying on any dated fact in this profile.