Polymarket bonds

Polymarket bonds: high-probability markets ranked by annualized yield.

Learn what traders mean by Polymarket bonds and compare high-probability prediction markets by annualized yield, liquidity and time to resolution.

Updated September 29, 2026 · Educational content · Not financial advice

What are Polymarket bonds?

“Polymarket bonds” is an informal analogy for buying outcomes that trade close to $1 and waiting for a $1 payout if they resolve in your favor. They are not bonds, do not pay contractual interest and are not protected like regulated fixed-income products. The resemblance is limited to committing capital now for a potentially small, defined payout later.

A 98¢ winning share pays $1, producing about 2.04% gross return on the purchase price. The same gain can imply very different annualized rates depending on whether settlement is expected in two days or two months. 99market ranks these near-$1 outcomes using simple APR so the time trade-off is visible.

Polymarket 98–99.5¢ markets

Live high-probability markets ranked by APR

Scan Polymarket outcomes trading between 98¢ and 99.5¢. Compare annualized yield, liquidity, volume and time to resolution before placing a trade.

Compare likely outcomes and their trade-offs. No market or displayed return is guaranteed.

31 found

Updated Oct 30, 10:20 AM

Operational

31 markets

Score is an automated rule-quality heuristic, not a recommendation. Methodology

Links open Polymarket ↗ · Some include a referral parameter. Disclosure

Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 30?

Weather - +$2.04 per $100 - liq 1.2K

OutcomeNo
Price98.0c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
67 Watch
Ends1h 39mOct 30, 12:00 PM
Volume6.9K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on October 30?

Weather - +$2.04 per $100 - liq 1.3K

OutcomeNo
Price98.0c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
67 Watch
Ends1h 39mOct 30, 12:00 PM
Volume2.3K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 30?

Weather - +$1.88 per $100 - liq 1.2K

OutcomeYes
Price98.2c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
67 Watch
Ends1h 39mOct 30, 12:00 PM
Volume4.9K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on October 30?

Weather - +$1.78 per $100 - liq 1.2K

OutcomeNo
Price98.3c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
67 Watch
Ends1h 39mOct 30, 12:00 PM
Volume5.1K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 23°C on October 30?

Weather - +$1.57 per $100 - liq 835

OutcomeYes
Price98.5c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
67 Watch
Ends1h 39mOct 30, 12:00 PM
Volume7.8K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 30?

Weather - +$1.57 per $100 - liq 994.6

OutcomeNo
Price98.5c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
67 Watch
Ends1h 39mOct 30, 12:00 PM
Volume2K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be at least 0.6%?

Economy - +$2.04 per $100 - liq 176.1

OutcomeNo
Price98.0c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
65 Watch
Ends2h 9mOct 30, 12:30 PM
Volume1.4K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 30?

Weather - +$1.47 per $100 - liq 8.3K

OutcomeYes
Price98.6c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
80 Good
Ends1h 39mOct 30, 12:00 PM
Volume5.9K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 24°C on October 30?

Weather - +$1.47 per $100 - liq 613.2

OutcomeNo
Price98.6c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
67 Watch
Ends1h 39mOct 30, 12:00 PM
Volume5K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Exact Score: Abha Saudi Club 3 - 1 Al Ittihad Saudi Club?

Sports - +$1.78 per $100 - liq 18K

OutcomeNo
Price98.3c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
72 Watch
Ends2h 9mOct 30, 12:30 PM
Volume1K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Exact Score: Abha Saudi Club 5 - 5 Al Ittihad Saudi Club?

Sports - +$1.52 per $100 - liq 89.7

OutcomeNo
Price98.5c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
72 Watch
Ends2h 9mOct 30, 12:30 PM
Volume2.9K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be less than -0.2%?

Economy - +$1.32 per $100 - liq 192.1

OutcomeNo
Price98.7c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
65 Watch
Ends2h 9mOct 30, 12:30 PM
Volume1.4K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between -0.2% and -0.1%?

Economy - +$1.06 per $100 - liq 279.9

OutcomeNo
Price99.0c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
65 Watch
Ends2h 9mOct 30, 12:30 PM
Volume1.3K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 30?

Crypto - +$1.94 per $100 - liq 16K

OutcomeNo
Price98.1c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
57 Risky
Ends5h 39mOct 30, 04:00 PM
Volume20.4K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Exact Score: Al Diraiyah Saudi Club 5 - 5 NEOM SC?

Sports - +$1.52 per $100 - liq 88

OutcomeNo
Price98.5c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
72 Watch
Ends4h 29mOct 30, 02:50 PM
Volume2.9K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on October 30?

Crypto - +$1.88 per $100 - liq 22.5K

OutcomeNo
Price98.2c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
57 Risky
Ends5h 39mOct 30, 04:00 PM
Volume17K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on October 30?

Crypto - +$1.52 per $100 - liq 4.4K

OutcomeNo
Price98.5c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
57 Risky
Ends5h 39mOct 30, 04:00 PM
Volume6.5K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Exact Score: Konyaspor 5 - 5 Galatasaray SK?

Sports - +$1.52 per $100 - liq 684

OutcomeNo
Price98.5c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
72 Watch
Ends6h 39mOct 30, 05:00 PM
Volume2.2K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $600 end of October?

Economy - +$2.04 per $100 - liq 381.8

OutcomeNo
Price98.0c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
56 Risky
Ends9h 39mOct 30, 08:00 PM
Volume3.2K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $228 Week of October 26 2026?

Economy - +$2.04 per $100 - liq 23.7

OutcomeYes
Price98.0c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
56 Risky
Ends9h 39mOct 30, 08:00 PM
Volume2.3K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?

Politics - +$1.11 per $100 - liq 203.8

OutcomeYes
Price98.9c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
47 Risky
Ends5h 39mOct 30, 04:00 PM
Volume1.5K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $276 Week of October 26 2026?

Economy - +$1.88 per $100 - liq 1.4K

OutcomeNo
Price98.2c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
56 Risky
Ends9h 39mOct 30, 08:00 PM
Volume3.5K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Ethereum Up or Down on October 30?

Crypto - +$0.96 per $100 - liq 17.2K

OutcomeDown
Price99.1c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
43 Risky
Ends5h 39mOct 30, 04:00 PM
Volume30.3K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $350 Week of October 26 2026?

Economy - +$1.47 per $100 - liq 1.5K

OutcomeNo
Price98.6c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
56 Risky
Ends9h 39mOct 30, 08:00 PM
Volume2.5K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on October 30?

Crypto - +$0.86 per $100 - liq 5.3K

OutcomeNo
Price99.2c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
57 Risky
Ends5h 39mOct 30, 04:00 PM
Volume6.1K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,000 on October 30?

Crypto - +$0.76 per $100 - liq 4.5K

OutcomeNo
Price99.3c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
57 Risky
Ends5h 39mOct 30, 04:00 PM
Volume6.3K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Bitcoin Up or Down on October 30?

Crypto - +$0.76 per $100 - liq 38.4K

OutcomeDown
Price99.3c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
43 Risky
Ends5h 39mOct 30, 04:00 PM
Volume77.7K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $55 Week of October 26 2026?

Economy - +$1.37 per $100 - liq 1.3K

OutcomeNo
Price98.7c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
56 Risky
Ends10h 39mOct 30, 09:00 PM
Volume1.1K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 30?

Crypto - +$0.65 per $100 - liq 13.4K

OutcomeNo
Price99.4c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
57 Risky
Ends5h 39mOct 30, 04:00 PM
Volume152.3K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs UNiTY esports - Map 1 Winner

Sports - +$0.50 per $100 - liq 18.5K

OutcomeUNiTY esports
Price99.5c
APR897.1%
Score
60 Watch
Ends4h 54mOct 30, 03:15 PM
Volume7.7K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Le Havre AC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC Spread

Sports - +$0.55 per $100 - liq 12.4K

OutcomeParis Saint-Germain FC (+2.5)
Price99.5c
APR632.7%
Score
68 Watch
Ends7h 39mOct 30, 06:00 PM
Volume25.5K

How to evaluate a bond-like market

  1. Verify the payout condition. Read the exact resolution rules and primary source.
  2. Check executable liquidity. Volume is historical; the current order book determines whether you can enter near the displayed price.
  3. Include realistic time. Add expected settlement delay, not only the scheduled event date.
  4. Compare net return. Fees and slippage reduce the small spread between purchase price and payout.
  5. Size for a full loss. An incorrectly resolved or losing share can fall to $0.

Yield is compensation for risk, not free interest

A very high APR often comes from a short time denominator, a price below $1, or both. It can also signal uncertainty that is not obvious from the headline: ambiguous wording, a disputed source, a thin order book or a settlement delay. Compare APR only after understanding why the market has not already moved closer to $1.

Unlike arbitrage, buying one favored outcome leaves directional and resolution risk. Use the methodology and risk disclosure before treating the ranking as actionable.