Polymarket bonds: high-probability markets ranked by annualized yield.

“Polymarket bonds” is an informal analogy for buying outcomes that trade close to $1 and waiting for a $1 payout if they resolve in your favor. They are not bonds, do not pay contractual interest and are not protected like regulated fixed-income products. The resemblance is limited to committing capital now for a potentially small, defined payout later.

A 98¢ winning share pays $1, producing about 2.04% gross return on the purchase price. The same gain can imply very different annualized rates depending on whether settlement is expected in two days or two months. 99market ranks these near-$1 outcomes using simple APR so the time trade-off is visible.

1. Verify the payout condition. Read the exact resolution rules and primary source.
2. Check executable liquidity. Volume is historical; the current order book determines whether you can enter near the displayed price.
3. Include realistic time. Add expected settlement delay, not only the scheduled event date.
4. Compare net return. Fees and slippage reduce the small spread between purchase price and payout.
5. Size for a full loss. An incorrectly resolved or losing share can fall to $0.

A very high APR often comes from a short time denominator, a price below $1, or both. It can also signal uncertainty that is not obvious from the headline: ambiguous wording, a disputed source, a thin order book or a settlement delay. Compare APR only after understanding why the market has not already moved closer to $1.

Unlike arbitrage, buying one favored outcome leaves directional and resolution risk. Use the methodology and risk disclosure before treating the ranking as actionable.