Polymarket bonds

Polymarket bonds: high-probability markets ranked by annualized yield.

Learn what traders mean by Polymarket bonds and compare high-probability prediction markets by annualized yield, liquidity and time to resolution.

Reviewed August 10, 2026 · Educational content · Not financial advice

What are Polymarket bonds?

“Polymarket bonds” is an informal analogy for buying outcomes that trade close to $1 and waiting for a $1 payout if they resolve in your favor. They are not bonds, do not pay contractual interest and are not protected like regulated fixed-income products. The resemblance is limited to committing capital now for a potentially small, defined payout later.

A 98¢ winning share pays $1, producing about 2.04% gross return on the purchase price. The same gain can imply very different annualized rates depending on whether settlement is expected in two days or two months. 99market ranks these near-$1 outcomes using simple APR so the time trade-off is visible.

Polymarket 98–99.5¢ markets

Live high-probability markets ranked by APR

Scan Polymarket outcomes trading between 98¢ and 99.5¢. Compare annualized yield, liquidity, volume and time to resolution before placing a trade.

Compare likely outcomes and their trade-offs. No market or displayed return is guaranteed.

39 found

Updated Sep 15, 02:34 AM

Operational

39 markets

Score is an automated rule-quality heuristic, not a recommendation. Methodology

Links open Polymarket ↗ · Some include a referral parameter. Disclosure

Open on Polymarket ↗

Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on September 14?

Crypto - +$1.42 per $100 - liq 13.5K

OutcomeNo
Price98.6c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
80 Good
Ends1h 25mSep 15, 04:00 AM
Volume28.6K
Open on Polymarket ↗

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase September 8-14?

Crypto - +$1.21 per $100 - liq 4.1K

OutcomeNo
Price98.8c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
49 Risky
Ends1h 25mSep 15, 04:00 AM
Volume12.1K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will Ethereum reach $2,700 on September 14?

Crypto - +$1.01 per $100 - liq 15.6K

OutcomeNo
Price99.0c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
80 Good
Ends1h 25mSep 15, 04:00 AM
Volume8.6K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will Ethereum dip to $2,450 on September 14?

Crypto - +$0.96 per $100 - liq 11.6K

OutcomeNo
Price99.1c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
80 Good
Ends1h 25mSep 15, 04:00 AM
Volume7.2K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on September 15?

Weather - +$2.04 per $100 - liq 1.1K

OutcomeNo
Price98.0c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
67 Watch
Ends9h 25mSep 15, 12:00 PM
Volume1.4K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on September 15?

Weather - +$2.04 per $100 - liq 1K

OutcomeNo
Price98.0c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
67 Watch
Ends9h 25mSep 15, 12:00 PM
Volume2.1K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on September 15?

Weather - +$2.04 per $100 - liq 854.5

OutcomeNo
Price98.0c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
67 Watch
Ends9h 25mSep 15, 12:00 PM
Volume2.8K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on September 15?

Weather - +$2.04 per $100 - liq 2K

OutcomeNo
Price98.0c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
67 Watch
Ends9h 25mSep 15, 12:00 PM
Volume1.1K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on September 15?

Weather - +$2.04 per $100 - liq 951.9

OutcomeNo
Price98.0c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
67 Watch
Ends9h 25mSep 15, 12:00 PM
Volume2.3K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on September 15?

Weather - +$1.94 per $100 - liq 1.7K

OutcomeNo
Price98.1c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
67 Watch
Ends9h 25mSep 15, 12:00 PM
Volume2.8K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting?

Economy - +$1.88 per $100 - liq 1.6K

OutcomeNo
Price98.2c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
56 Risky
Ends9h 24mSep 15, 11:59 AM
Volume45.4K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 15?

Weather - +$1.63 per $100 - liq 1.5K

OutcomeNo
Price98.4c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
67 Watch
Ends9h 25mSep 15, 12:00 PM
Volume6.8K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on September 15?

Weather - +$1.52 per $100 - liq 1.4K

OutcomeNo
Price98.5c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
67 Watch
Ends9h 25mSep 15, 12:00 PM
Volume2.7K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on September 15?

Crypto - +$2.09 per $100 - liq 37.7K

OutcomeNo
Price98.0c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
80 Good
Ends13h 25mSep 15, 04:00 PM
Volume57.3K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on September 15?

Crypto - +$1.68 per $100 - liq 22.9K

OutcomeYes
Price98.4c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
66 Watch
Ends13h 25mSep 15, 04:00 PM
Volume4K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Exact Score: Elche CF 0 - 0 Real Madrid CF?

Sports - +$2.09 per $100 - liq 113.7K

OutcomeNo
Price98.0c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
53 Risky
Ends16h 55mSep 15, 07:30 PM
Volume1.7K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Elche CF vs. Real Madrid CF: Neither team to score first?

Sports - +$1.94 per $100 - liq 16.9K

OutcomeNo
Price98.1c
APR>1000% 🔥
Score
50 Risky
Ends16h 55mSep 15, 07:30 PM
Volume1.8K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Elche CF vs. Real Madrid CF Spread

Sports - +$1.88 per $100 - liq 36.3K

OutcomeReal Madrid CF (+1.5)
Price98.2c
APR975.2%
Score
58 Risky
Ends16h 55mSep 15, 07:30 PM
Volume97.4K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will Iran target Syria by September 15, 2026?

Politics - +$1.99 per $100 - liq 9.1K

OutcomeNo
Price98.0c
APR946.1%
Score
52 Risky
Ends18h 24mSep 15, 08:59 PM
Volume5.6K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 15?

Crypto - +$1.37 per $100 - liq 37.1K

OutcomeNo
Price98.7c
APR892.5%
Score
80 Good
Ends13h 25mSep 15, 04:00 PM
Volume19K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on September 15?

Crypto - +$1.32 per $100 - liq 25.6K

OutcomeNo
Price98.7c
APR859.0%
Score
80 Good
Ends13h 25mSep 15, 04:00 PM
Volume15.5K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026?

Politics - +$1.27 per $100 - liq 288.2

OutcomeNo
Price98.8c
APR825.6%
Score
47 Risky
Ends13h 25mSep 15, 04:00 PM
Volume1K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will "Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?

Culture - +$1.78 per $100 - liq 1.2K

OutcomeYes
Price98.3c
APR728.6%
Score
41 Risky
Ends21h 24mSep 15, 11:59 PM
Volume11.5K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 3 - 3 RCD Espanyol de Barcelona?

Sports - +$1.16 per $100 - liq 78.6K

OutcomeNo
Price98.9c
APR706.2%
Score
72 Watch
Ends14h 25mSep 15, 05:00 PM
Volume2.3K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will "Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?

Culture - +$1.63 per $100 - liq 1.1K

OutcomeYes
Price98.4c
APR665.1%
Score
41 Risky
Ends21h 24mSep 15, 11:59 PM
Volume4.6K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026?

Politics - +$1.01 per $100 - liq 731.4

OutcomeNo
Price99.0c
APR658.8%
Score
47 Risky
Ends13h 25mSep 15, 04:00 PM
Volume2.2K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will "NFL Melbourne Game: 49ers vs. Rams" be the top US Netflix show this week?

Culture - +$1.52 per $100 - liq 2.3K

OutcomeNo
Price98.5c
APR622.9%
Score
45 Risky
Ends21h 24mSep 15, 11:59 PM
Volume4.2K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?

Economy - +$0.65 per $100 - liq 3.5K

OutcomeNo
Price99.4c
APR608.8%
Score
60 Watch
Ends9h 24mSep 15, 11:59 AM
Volume12.8K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will "The Whisper Man" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?

Culture - +$1.37 per $100 - liq 1.7K

OutcomeYes
Price98.7c
APR559.8%
Score
45 Risky
Ends21h 24mSep 15, 11:59 PM
Volume10.4K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will "The Whisper Man" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

Culture - +$1.27 per $100 - liq 2.6K

OutcomeNo
Price98.8c
APR517.8%
Score
45 Risky
Ends21h 24mSep 15, 11:59 PM
Volume1.2K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?

Economy - +$0.55 per $100 - liq 2.2K

OutcomeNo
Price99.5c
APR514.6%
Score
65 Watch
Ends9h 24mSep 15, 11:59 AM
Volume7.8K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will "Why Did I Get Married Again?" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

Culture - +$1.21 per $100 - liq 2.4K

OutcomeYes
Price98.8c
APR496.8%
Score
45 Risky
Ends21h 24mSep 15, 11:59 PM
Volume5.5K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will "Crew Girl: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?

Culture - +$1.21 per $100 - liq 2.4K

OutcomeNo
Price98.8c
APR496.8%
Score
45 Risky
Ends21h 24mSep 15, 11:59 PM
Volume2.7K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 24 million views this week?

Culture - +$1.21 per $100 - liq 917.7

OutcomeNo
Price98.8c
APR496.8%
Score
49 Risky
Ends21h 24mSep 15, 11:59 PM
Volume2.2K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 15, 2026?

Politics - +$0.91 per $100 - liq 13.4K

OutcomeNo
Price99.1c
APR432.0%
Score
52 Risky
Ends18h 24mSep 15, 08:59 PM
Volume63K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will Iran target Oman by September 15, 2026?

Politics - +$0.86 per $100 - liq 12.2K

OutcomeNo
Price99.2c
APR431.2%
Score
52 Risky
Ends17h 24mSep 15, 07:59 PM
Volume5.3K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Politics - +$0.96 per $100 - liq 1.8M

OutcomeNo
Price99.1c
APR392.0%
Score
64 Watch
Ends21h 25mSep 16, 12:00 AM
Volume24.1M
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will Iran target Egypt by September 15, 2026?

Politics - +$0.76 per $100 - liq 8.6K

OutcomeNo
Price99.3c
APR359.5%
Score
52 Risky
Ends18h 24mSep 15, 08:59 PM
Volume11.7K
Open on Polymarket ↗

Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026?

Politics - +$0.50 per $100 - liq 360.2

OutcomeNo
Price99.5c
APR327.7%
Score
47 Risky
Ends13h 25mSep 15, 04:00 PM
Volume1.3K

How to evaluate a bond-like market

  1. Verify the payout condition. Read the exact resolution rules and primary source.
  2. Check executable liquidity. Volume is historical; the current order book determines whether you can enter near the displayed price.
  3. Include realistic time. Add expected settlement delay, not only the scheduled event date.
  4. Compare net return. Fees and slippage reduce the small spread between purchase price and payout.
  5. Size for a full loss. An incorrectly resolved or losing share can fall to $0.

Yield is compensation for risk, not free interest

A very high APR often comes from a short time denominator, a price below $1, or both. It can also signal uncertainty that is not obvious from the headline: ambiguous wording, a disputed source, a thin order book or a settlement delay. Compare APR only after understanding why the market has not already moved closer to $1.

Unlike arbitrage, buying one favored outcome leaves directional and resolution risk. Use the methodology and risk disclosure before treating the ranking as actionable.